422: The words 'to make money' hold the essence of human morality.

I don't know what your feelings are about it, but before 2008 I never have realized that there exists something like "financial markets".

-

Of course, I knew about the stock exchange, but that governments depend on how financial markets respond? No, that was really new to me.

-

It all looks so innocent  and understandable. Let's quote Wikipedia: 

"A financial market is a market in which people and entities can trade financial securities, commodities, 

-

and other fungible items of value at low transaction costs and at prices that reflect supply and demand. 

-

Securities include stocks and bonds, and commodities include precious metals or agricultural goods.

-

There are both general markets (where many commodities are traded) and specialized markets (where only one commodity is traded).

 -

Markets work by placing many interested buyers and sellers, including households, firms, and government agencies, in one "place", thus making it easier for them to find each other.

 -

An economy which relies primarily on interactions between buyers and sellers to allocate resources is known as a market economy in contrast either to a command economy or to a non-market economy such as a gift economy.

-

In finance, financial markets facilitate:

- The raising of capital (in the capital markets)

- The transfer of risk (in the derivatives markets)

-

In economics, typically, the term market means the aggregate of possible buyers and sellers of a certain good or service and the transactions between them.

-

During the 1980s and 1990s, a major growth sector in financial markets is the trade in so called derivative products, or derivatives for short." 

- end quote -

-

It is simple as that. All is just interaction between buyers and sellers. That is what most economists like to believe, but philosophers and psychologist question fundamentally.

-

In a previous lecture Longstep brought to my attention the following documentary:  

http://videos.arte.tv/fr/videos/la-grande-pompe-a-phynances--6965918.html 

(unfortunately only in French and German). There is also a part two.

-

The story of the documentary is pretty scary. It is hard to believe, that we are dealing with human beings controlling the financial world. 

-

It just looks like a small oligargy of financial hotshots that try to control our world. Their motivation? That is the most scary part: making more money….

-

This in combination with the simplistic anthropology of many economists, who believe to live in a world of buyers and sellers,

 this leads to the famous speech on money by Francisco d"Anconia in Ayn Rand's "Atlas Shrugged". (Part Two, Chapter II, The Aristocracy of Pull)

- quote -

"If you ask me to name the proudest distinction of Americans, I would choose—because it contains all the others—the fact that they were the people who created the phrase 'to make money.’ 

No other language or nation had ever used these words before; men had always thought of wealth as a static quantity—to be seized, begged, inherited, shared, looted or obtained as a favor. 

Americans were the first to understand that wealth has to be created. The words 'to make money' hold the essence of human morality.

 -end quote -

And with this (American) morality we are dealing now and keep our conviction that the essence of morality is something quite different.

Dr. Vandana Shiva from India, held a lecture  at Portland Community College in Portland, Oregon, USA on February 24th, 2011. 

Lizzy brought her to my attention and a quote from her lecture, I think, is  a perfect addition to this lecture:

-quote-

”Democracy in the present context is dead because originally it was of the people by the people and for the people.

 Although millions of people say ”no war” all governments of the rich nations send soldiers to Iraq and Afganistan. 

Across the world people say ”stop the banks from stealing our money” ... and the governments do nothing apart from saving the banks and let them be even more valuable than the people. 

When corporations start to influence political decisions and lobbyists substitute the people then it is a government of the corporations by the corporations and the people are totally disposable. 

This is what threatens democracy and why democracy has to be invented new“.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UOfM7QD7-kk

My only criticism here is, that corporations and governments are still just individual human beings. In other words, it still is about the individual ethics of an individual being that makes this world.

The Discussion

herman Bergson: Thank you ^_^

Debbie Dee (framdor): At least the first half.

Lizzy Pleides: Thank you Herman

Debbie Dee (framdor): Thanks Prof.

Qwark Allen: thank you

herman Bergson: What about the first half debbie?

Qwark Allen: a pitty i can`t see that video

herman Bergson: If I could download it...

herman Bergson: but it is more than 71 minutes

Kime Babenco: Thanks Herman

Debbie Dee (framdor): So now - we agree - the corporations are in control. How do we stop them with democracy?

Lizzy Pleides: in youtube you should be able to see it Qwark

herman Bergson: part two is 66 minutes

herman Bergson: You know Debbie.....that is what I am wondering about mysellf...

herman Bergson: all these men...dont they have families, children...a social life?

Qwark Allen: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fou4DOnL2ao

Qwark Allen: can you check if is that the video?

herman Bergson: research has shown that the richer you get the less social empathy you have

Debbie Dee (framdor): Yes - 1 hr 27 mins. Make it homework for discussion next week?

Kime Babenco: lol

Debbie Dee (framdor): Or at least keep them accountable?

herman Bergson: La grande pompe de phynances

herman Bergson: Yes that is the one Qwark

Qwark Allen: we know that the 1930 was man made crash

Lizzy Pleides: Hi Beertje

herman Bergson: Hi Beertje....:-)

.: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): Goodevening:) sorry I'm late

Debbie Dee (framdor): Hi Beertje

Qwark Allen: someone just run with 500 billions in that time

herman Bergson: Yes Qwark and in the documentary these people are mentioned by name....

herman Bergson: The present crisis is manmade too.....

Qwark Allen: yes, and we know why they want it now

herman Bergson: and why is it?

Qwark Allen: more money and more power

Kime Babenco: Banks

herman Bergson: oh yes...

Lizzy Pleides: always the same

Debbie Dee (framdor): More power to do what?

herman Bergson: Yes Debbie...that puzzles me too always...

Qwark Allen: there are some "not friends" they want to get rid also

Lizzy Pleides: they think it can't be a mistake to have power

herman Bergson: to imprint your personal view of the world on this whole world I guess

herman Bergson: A person loves to do that.....gives a feeling of security

herman Bergson: I mean..these guys at the top are just ordinary people like everyone....

herman Bergson: but somehow power corrupts the brain....

herman Bergson: We see it with celebreties….

.: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): they don't see themselves as ordinary people..they think they are special

herman Bergson: they go nuts because of the everlasting applause they get everywhere

Debbie Dee (framdor): I guess. But there is no point in destroying the world if you want to bestride it like a collosus

herman Bergson: That is the paradox I am thinking of Debbie....

herman Bergson: on the one hand you can create a crisis to get richer yourself...

Kime Babenco: Indeed.. If you were to be caught with 0,5grams of drugs in USA, you go to jail for a serious while, famous (rich) people walk a way with it

herman Bergson: but on the other hand you NEED this world intact to get richer

Debbie Dee (framdor): Only if richness is defined as only money.

Debbie Dee (framdor): yes herman. But as you have demonstrated - richness is way more than money.

herman Bergson: The thing is that it is not defined by more MONEY, but by some drive for MORE money...

Kime Babenco: Don't tell me there is no class judgement... because it's everywhere

Debbie Dee (framdor): Its crazy. And we are all complicit in this scheme.

Kime Babenco: Us knows us, and money knows money...

Kime Babenco: Hate else are clubs like Rotary and Lions?

herman Bergson: But I still believe in a countermovement....

herman Bergson: Like today Lizzy for instance points at Dr. Shiva....

herman Bergson: I still believe that these voices will be heard....

herman Bergson: let me give you an example....

Lizzy Pleides: lets hope it

Kime Babenco: She was completely right about her definition of democracy... But DO we really have democracy ?

Debbie Dee (framdor): There is a counter movement. However, we are still terribly weak. We are all so enslaved by money and technology.

herman Bergson: in the 1980s the banks were set free....

herman Bergson: in no time there emerged a trade in derivatives....

herman Bergson: especially in the US.....the holy Making money land....

herman Bergson: JC Morgan in the front row!

Debbie Dee (framdor): For example - why can you buy a car with a 7 liter engine?

Kime Babenco: Bankers should be bankers and not insurances or any other things

herman Bergson: Everybody now has to admit that the banks ruined the financial system...

herman Bergson: to give banks free reign means signing your death warrant...

herman Bergson: besides that of course we have corruption....

Lizzy Pleides: they had almost no limits

herman Bergson: the other way to get more and more ...

herman Bergson: indeed Lizzy....it is astonishing what they did, these bankers...

herman Bergson: Another example...

Qwark Allen: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KLDVsLCtXXg

herman Bergson: in my newspaper...

Debbie Dee (framdor): It seems that Chavez is meeting with some success with his democratic socialism

Qwark Allen: someone talking about, why they want this war to happen

Kime Babenco: Hugo Chavez from Venezuela you mean ?

herman Bergson: all of a sudden stocks of Kraft Food went up 29% on NASDAQ

Qwark Allen: omg

Debbie Dee (framdor): yes

herman Bergson: then they stopped the trade....

herman Bergson: what was the case.....

Kime Babenco: He is helping the poor people there

herman Bergson: this stocktrade isn't handled by humans anymore...

Kime Babenco: But the economy fell down there

herman Bergson: there are computers monitoring the market and buying and selling at an incredible speed...!

Debbie Dee (framdor): http://www.countercurrents.org/wharton081012.htm

Debbie Dee (framdor): This link is about the successes in Venezuela

herman Bergson: What are people doing there at NASDAQ?????

Kime Babenco: the fastest wins... that isn't fair either

herman Bergson: it is no longer about economy, ...allocating resources, but about making money....

herman Bergson: making more money...

herman Bergson: Venezuela and Chavez is a different story ....

Debbie Dee (framdor): making money? Funny idea ;)

herman Bergson: yes Debbie...but that was the American dream of Ayn Rand...

Debbie Dee (framdor): Millions of formerly unemployed Venezuelan workers, millions who once lived in extreme poverty, millions of children who survived childbirth and now millions of Venezuelan voters provide testimony to the transformative potential of socialism in the 21st century

Kime Babenco: If you would, just imagine , be a visitor from another planet, and see how a stock exchange , like Wall Street , works, and knowing that that is determinating where is going good or bad... You can't stop laughing I guess,,,

herman Bergson: I checked the 1000+ pages of Atlas Shrugged on the expression "make money"

Debbie Dee (framdor): and herman?

herman Bergson: dozens of times....

Second Life: Doodus Rebootus (doodus.moose) is online.

herman Bergson: after page 320 I stopped for I had found d'Anconia's speech ^_^

herman Bergson: I have no opinion about what is happening in Venezuela because a lack of knowledge at the moment

Debbie Dee (framdor): I still don't really understand making money. But I think it is about moving wealth to limited recipients at the expense of the planet.

herman Bergson: But I dont believ ein fairytales...nor the blessings of socialism....we have seen that promise often enough

Debbie Dee (framdor): http://www.countercurrents.org/vorpahl081012.htm - read this - it is the real start of the anti capitalist revolution

herman Bergson: ok Debbie...

herman Bergson: but let me get back to the core of this project....

Kime Babenco: If you see what bankers got fixed, you can't be angry to a bank robber anymore

herman Bergson: the basic idea is that there can be a market economy.....that there are buyers and sellers ...

herman Bergson: but that this system can not be applied to all social relations....

Lizzy Pleides: we need changes urgently but we shouldn't go from 1 extreme to another

herman Bergson: social relations, education, healthcare, environment...areas like that are slowly penetrated by this neoliberal market belief.....and that has to be stopped

Debbie Dee (framdor): no - but it has to start somewhere lizzy.

Debbie Dee (framdor): It actually needs to start like it is with us - in each persons' awareness.

Lizzy Pleides: true debbie

Kime Babenco: Of course we have to condemn any crime... but why don't we with all ? like the much higher amounts... in costume and with tie or whatever

herman Bergson: yes Kime...that is what I also say....and that is why I believe in a counter movemnet

herman Bergson: and you see these signs everywhere...

herman Bergson: Banks aren't free anymore to do as they like

Debbie Dee (framdor): The paradox for me is that I like high technology mass produced stuff, and enjoy the trappings of energy gluttony.

herman Bergson: they still try...but yet

Debbie Dee (framdor): So on a daily level I vote for the corporations ith my dollars

herman Bergson: What worries me most is that there is a small group of people, not democratically controlled, who govern this planet

Qwark Allen: yep

Kime Babenco: USA say always they spread democracy when they are attacking a country... I have never seen any result of that...or hardly...

Qwark Allen: the shadow government

herman Bergson: Yes Qwark....

Qwark Allen: above all governments

Debbie Dee (framdor): They are using up stock, to make space for more guns.

Kime Babenco: What rules is money...

herman Bergson: that documentary I mentioned shows it so clearly....really scary

Qwark Allen: nice, i`ll have a look for sure

Qwark Allen: the truth is out there

Qwark Allen: you just have to know the question, to get your answer

herman Bergson: There was one moment when I looked at that documentary when I thought

herman Bergson: what am I doing here in SL....

Debbie Dee (framdor): The truth is in you qwark ;)

Qwark Allen: hehehe

herman Bergson: talking about ethics .....

Second Life: JF (janfolkert.alter) is online.

Second Life: Mariella Diesel (mariella.deezul) is offline.

herman Bergson: ethics of who?

Qwark Allen: God

herman Bergson: yes us...simple people at the end of the food chain....

Debbie Dee (framdor): god?

Qwark Allen: just a joke

herman Bergson: while the vultures circle above our heads

Qwark Allen: yes, indeed

Qwark Allen: i have to go now

Qwark Allen: thank you hermann

herman Bergson: I guess ...we better stop for today indeed ^_^

Qwark Allen: AAHH!!!

Lizzy Pleides: TC Qwark

Qwark Allen: :-)))

.: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): bye Qwark

herman Bergson: Thank you all for your participation again

Qwark Allen: i should be already playing at a club

Qwark Allen: eheheh

herman Bergson: Class dismissed

Qwark Allen: we are getting the answers we are looking for ^^

herman Bergson: Run Qwark!!!

.: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): I'll read the blog tomorrow Herman..I missed it all I guess

Lizzy Pleides: we have to thank you for teaching us ethics Herman

herman Bergson: Dont worry Beertje.....the text is patient....

.: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): as I am:)))

421: The Aftermath of Neoliberalism: Don't buy Xmas presents....

- quote -

"You were right. The toast was a HUGE hit! I used the version with the dance quote. One person told me it was the best toast they had ever heard. 

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I had at least 3 dozen people congratulate me on it throughout the night. Many of them pointing out a different part that they enjoyed. The groom's parents and uncle were especially touched by what I said." - end quote -

-

Isn't this great?! And this only for US$149 !!!! This is about the speech of the best friend of the groom (or something like that) at his wedding. He didn't write it, but bought it at http://www.ThePerfectToast.com

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How would have been the reactions of the people have been when he had ended his speech by telling that he didn't write the speech himself but had it written for US$149 by someone else?

-

Are there things that ought not to be bought? And if this is true, then what things are ok to sell or buy and which not? Or to say it in other words: do there exists things which money can not buy.

-

Ok, friendship, or a Nobel prize or an Oscar can not be bought, but Richard Allen Posner (born January 11, 1939), an American jurist, legal theorist, and economist, suggested that adoption babies would be better of when sold to the highest bidder.

-

Let's talk about gifts. You like getting gifts? Then you are economically pretty dumb :-) Let me explain. You contribute to an enormous value destruction.

-

December 1993, the economist Joel Waldfogel, published an article with the title "The Deadweight Loss of Christmas". You can find it on the internet, very technical article.

-

His conclusion: "Estimates in this paper indicate that between a tenth and a third of the value of holiday gifts is destroyed by gift-giving.  (…) holiday gift expenditures in 1992 totaled $38 billion according to one estimate. 

-

If between a tenth and a third of this spending was wasted, then the deadweight loss of 1992 holiday gift-giving was between $4 billion and $13 billion." - end quote -

-

In 2009 Waldfogel restyled his ideas  on the subject and published them in a nice book  (US$9.95 only) Maybe a nice gift ;-) for Xmas. "Scroogenomics: Why You Shouldn't Buy Presents for the Holidays"

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- quote -

"Another huge, value-destroying hurricane is about to slam America, destroying billions of dollars of value. Another Katrina? No, another Christmas. 

-

This voluntary December calamity is explained in a darkly amusing little book that is about the size of an iPhone. 

-

Scroogenomics comes from a distinguished publisher, Princeton University Press, and an eminent author, Joel Waldfogel of the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton business school."--George Will, Washington Post

 -

Let's listen to Waldfogel himself: "Gift giving is a poor way to allocate resources……" , a quote from a 6 minutes video interview with the author. I'll give you the URL at the end of the lecture and you HAVE to watch it.

-

- quote -

"The bottom line is that other people who go shopping  for us and buy clothes, music or whatever , are probably not as good in choosing as we would be ourselves. 

-

There is a good chance that their choices, no matter how well intended, are ineffective. If we consider their gifts to the degree of satisfaction that the money spent could have given us, we see that there is value destruction."

-

"Economic theory - and common sense- tell us that things, we bought ourselves, offer us more satisfaction per euro, dollar or shekel than things others bought for us."

- end quote -

-

Of course this lecture may cause a smile on your face or make you laugh, but my real intention is to ask you: do you think this is all ok or comes there over you a feeling that we are loosing here things we value?

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You may just go home and think about this. In my next lecture I'll come to conclusions. Now just have fun and watch Joel Waldfogel.

http://press.princeton.edu/video/waldfogel/

watch this (unfortunately only in French and German):

http://videos.arte.tv/fr/videos/la-grande-pompe-a-phynances--6965918.html

The Discussion

[13:28] herman Bergson: thank you

[13:28] Lizzy Pleides: thank you Professor, ...i have one problem with this

[13:29] herman Bergson: I hope you understand what Waldfogel is saying in the interview...talking like an economist

[13:29] herman Bergson: ok Lizzy what is the problem?

[13:29] Lizzy Pleides: we shouldn't make the same mistake as Ayn Rand and only ask for values, we also have ideals

[13:30] Lizzy Pleides: a gift is also a symbol for love

[13:30] Barbie Alchemi is online.

[13:30] herman Bergson: yes..you've got the point of what I am saying...

[13:30] Lizzy Pleides: this is an immense value

[13:30] herman Bergson: but you'll be shocked when you hear economists talk about this

[13:31] Lizzy Pleides: i thought so

[13:31] herman Bergson: and this issue of the economic ineffectiveness of giving gifts is just the (fun)tip of the iceberg

[13:32] Lizzy Pleides: but if you consider that a present is chosen with much passion it has a completely different value, ... not to count in €

[13:32] Kime Babenco: Let me say , for example Christmas presents... ... some get a hugh present, some get fe pairs of socks

[13:33] Lizzy Pleides: lol

[13:33] herman Bergson: yes I know Lizzy...and yet the market economy is pushing aside these qualities....

[13:33] Kime Babenco: Depends on the family of course, the economical situation

[13:33] Lizzy Pleides: socks are useful kime

[13:34] herman Bergson: it is not the size of the present what is the issue here...

[13:34] herman Bergson: it is the question...should I give the socks (he doesnt like) or the 10 euro/dollar, so he can buy whatever he likes

[13:34] Kime Babenco: Yes, but you needed anyway... It's not exactly a present of love or whatever

[13:35] Clerisse Beeswing: I like to give money and creive

[13:35] herman Bergson: Yes Clerisse....

[13:35] Kime Babenco: ceive ?

[13:35] Kime Babenco: creive ?

[13:35] Clerisse Beeswing: With giving money the chances of the person getting the gift might not be disappointed

[13:35] Jannah (jannahnura) is offline.

[13:35] Lizzy Pleides: many presents are chosen in an embarrassing situation, ... only for having a present, these are the gifts which are meant probably

[13:36] Kime Babenco: I agree

[13:36] herman Bergson: In Japan it is custom to accept present and not open them in the presence of the giver ^_^

[13:36] Clerisse Beeswing: wow I like that

[13:36] Kime Babenco: Most people know kids like toys , but to adults they never ask what they want as a present...

[13:37] Lizzy Pleides: so you can't show that you are disappointed

[13:37] herman Bergson: It shows the essence of giving presents in a way...the giving is the value...not the object itself...

[13:37] Lizzy Pleides: never ask children what they want Kime!

[13:37] Clerisse Beeswing: that isa hard thing sometimes

[13:38] herman Bergson: There is an in between....the Gift card

[13:38] Kime Babenco: I did once here, in Brasil, at my 15th birthday, and people leaved angry

[13:38] Clerisse Beeswing: I like the video

[13:38] herman Bergson: smiles

[13:38] herman Bergson: Isn't it amusing Clerisse?

[13:38] Clerisse Beeswing: yes very

[13:39] Clerisse Beeswing: I might get the book

[13:39] Kime Babenco: You have to open it while the people who gave you are around !

[13:39] Kime Babenco: Even I knew I knew what was in it

[13:40] Lizzy Pleides: well, a present is always s symbol of appreciation, but i like more something my children made themselves and that they didn't spend money

[13:40] herman Bergson: Well I once gave my wife flowers she didn't like that much....I mean the flowers....

[13:40] Lizzy Pleides: poor herman

[13:41] Clerisse Beeswing: ahh I love flowers

[13:41] herman Bergson: then I asked her...well I could have given you the 15 Euro....maybe you would have liked that better then

[13:41] herman Bergson: she said no...never....

[13:41] Lizzy Pleides: i don't like graveyard flowers

[13:41] herman Bergson: you better give me flowers which aren't my favorite than money..

[13:42] Clerisse Beeswing: I remember a grab bag present I got

[13:42] The Silent one (odie.rhosar) is online.

[13:42] Kime Babenco: It's always complicated

[13:42] Clerisse Beeswing: socks

[13:42] herman Bergson: But this also shows the point Lizzy makes ...

[13:43] herman Bergson: the value of a gift is not only its economic and usefulness value....it is the meaning, the intention, the attention and care of the giver he put into his choosing the gift that you receive too

[13:43] Lizzy Pleides: herman, i guess you are married more that 10 years, ... you should know which flowers your wife likes:-))

[13:44] herman Bergson: grins....and blushes

[13:44] Kime Babenco: For my 18th anniversary, my friends gave me an extremely large box, well designed in gifts paper 

[13:44] Kime Babenco: It was almost an empty box

[13:45] Kime Babenco: Full with foiled news papers

[13:45] Clerisse Beeswing: ahhh wow

[13:45] herman Bergson: a joke?

[13:46] Kime Babenco: In the middle of it was a small box... with 200 R$ in it

[13:46] herman Bergson: oh ..!

[13:46] herman Bergson: Nice find :-)

[13:46] Lizzy Pleides: awesome

[13:46] Kime Babenco: Just as the size of a box of matches

[13:46] Clerisse Beeswing: nice present

[13:47] herman Bergson: I guess you bought yourself a diamond ring of the money ^_^

[13:47] Lizzy Pleides: what did you do wit the news papers?

[13:47] Kime Babenco: yeeeeaaaahhhhhh!!!!!!!! , very nice, ands surprising...

[13:47] herman Bergson: lol

[13:47] Clerisse Beeswing: nice friends

[13:48] Kime Babenco: The originall box they had from a supermarket, , was originally a box of pampers... for babies

[13:49] herman Bergson: oh dear....the hidden message ^_^

[13:49] Lizzy Pleides: yes, hehe

[13:49] Kime Babenco: Huge box

[13:49] herman Bergson: did you buy pampers for the money Kime? ^_^

[13:50] Lizzy Pleides: Hahahaha..... ㋡   

[13:50] Kime Babenco: Lol

[13:51] Lizzy Pleides: the news papers were the waist

[13:51] Kime Babenco: Of course we went to party

[13:51] herman Bergson: Well thank you all...our discussion brought some fun

[13:51] Clerisse Beeswing: It was very good professor

[13:51] Clerisse Beeswing: Thank you

[13:51] Kime Babenco: Yes , those were to fill up the box and make it heavy...

[13:52] herman Bergson: I hope next Thursday the weather will be better :-)

[13:52] Lizzy Pleides: yes, this was an almost private lesson

[13:52] Kime Babenco: You have bad weather there now ?

[13:52] herman Bergson: I guess a number of people had trouble flying in here today ^_^

[13:53] herman Bergson: or even trouble getting into SL

[13:53] Kime Babenco: That's another kind of flying of course ...lol

[13:53] Lizzy Pleides: perhaps with bad weather more people are sitting in front of the screen

[13:54] herman Bergson: Yes Lizzy....cold and stormy autumn nights !

420: The Aftermath of Neoliberalism: science and statistical significance

Yesterday I ran into an issue which is a small detour of our present project , but yet closely related. Living in a world dominated by the belief in the free market means living in a world dominated by money.

We also live in a world, which is no longer dominated by all kinds of religious convictions, but by the rational insights which science offers us. At least that is what we believe.

But suppose, that a lot of science is corrupt? I mean, that the higher value of finding the truth about facts is replaced by receiving money to produce only favorable information about facts?

In other words, must we conclude that a lot of information with those appealing headings like "Researchers of institute so and so have discovered…" or "Recently discovered scientific facts show…" are a fraud?

But the science I am talking about is not mathematics, but I mean the sciences which are based on statistics, especially psychology, sociology and medicines. I'll tell you why….

The most commonly used statistical method is the p-test, and its origin lies in the year 1904. Place of action: the Guinness factory in Dublin. 

Guinness wanted to approach brewing beer scientifically  and therefore appointed the young chemist and mathematician William Gosset . 

Gosset focused on the biological variation of brewing raw materials such as barley and hops. The content of resins in the hops determines the taste and the stability of the beer, too much resin makes the beer undrinkable, and too little, too.  

Each hop flower has a different resin content, and when Guinness wanted to buy a wagonload of hop, they could not take measurements of each flower. 

Gosset found a way to calculate how many  hop flowers you had to analyze to determine with a given confidence how much resin the whole wagonload hop contained. 

When he reported: "There is a chance of more than 5% on average this party has too little resin", the sale was not on. By the way, his last statement is just a guess. Guinness never revealed their secret of how they actually selected their hop.

This statistical method was adopted by many sciences. Biology, psychology, environmental and health sciences would be helpless without statistics, and economics and sociology are leaning heavily on it. 

Drugs are allowed, dangerous substances prohibited, defendants sentenced to prison on the basis of statistical calculations. 

These calculations have become far more complex since  Gosset and his hop flowers, and they are only feasible using computer programs.

But here comes the catch. The p-test shows whether there is less or more than 5% chance that something is the case. Below 5% means that it is STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT, which means not just a coincidence.

Flawed findings, however, with respect to this 5% test, for the most part, stem not from fraud or formal misconduct, but from more mundane misbehavior: miscalculation, poor study design or self-serving data analysis.

 "There is an increasing concern that in modern research, false findings may be the majority or even the vast majority of published research claims," Dr. Ioannidis said. "A new claim about a research finding is more likely to be false than true."

Dr. Ioannidis is an epidemiologist who studies research methods at the University of Ioannina School of Medicine in Greece and Tufts University in Medford, Mass. 

In a series of influential analytical reports, he has documented how, in thousands of peer-reviewed research papers published every year, there may be so much less than meets the eye.

 "People are messing around with the data to find anything that seems significant, to show they have found something that is new and unusual," Dr. Ioannidis said.

In the U. S., research is a $55-billion-a-year enterprise that stakes its credibility on the reliability of evidence and the work of Dr. Ioannidis strikes a raw nerve.

Yes, a raw nerve, moral values like honesty, integrity, truthfulness in exchange for money. Money for more research, more spectacular "findings", more personal prestige.

We recently had that in the Netherlands too. Just a quote from the Dutch Wikipedia!

-quote- End of August 2011 close colleagues of the research group of Professor Diederik Stapelto reported to the rector of the University of Tilburg, Philip Eijlander, the suspicion of fraudulent activity in their searches.

About a week later, Stapel admitted that in some publications he had used fictitious data. Almost immediately Stapel was  laid off. A collaboration of three committees, with professors from Amsterdam, Groningen and Tilburg, led by psychologist Willem Levelt was asked to investigate exactly which publications were based on fictitious data. 

The committee reported that "it is a large-scale, long-term fraud on data, causing people and especially young researchers entrusted to him at the beginning of their career, to be deeply affected. 

This is extremely reprehensible behavior that science and especially the field of Social Psychology is highly prejudiced. "

"Money is the root of all evil", sung by the Andrew Sisters comes to my mind now and on the other had the fierce argument of   Francisco d'Anconia against this view in "Atlas Shrugged" (1957) by Ayn Rand.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118972683557627104.html

The Discussion

[13:27]  herman Bergson: Thank you ^_^

[13:27]  Qwark Allen: ::::::::: * E * X * C * E * L * L * E * N * T  * ::::::::::

[13:27]  Lizzy Pleides: Thank you

[13:27]  Kime Babenco: Fraud on evidence or proves, politicians know as well, remember how the war against Iraqi was started... a smoking gun which was never found

[13:27]  Debbie Dee (framdor): The golden rule of science: He who has the gold makes the rules!

[13:27]  Gemma Allen (gemma.cleanslate): the best thing is that with the computer it is now easier to find flawed studies

[13:27]  Qwark Allen: in another part of science, we see the same things

[13:28]  Umae Ying: the Koch brothers have funded the fraudulent claims that climate change is not happening... why? money

[13:28]  Gemma Allen (gemma.cleanslate): especially medicines

[13:28]  herman Bergson: that is true Gemma..:-)

[13:28]  Gemma Allen (gemma.cleanslate): ♥ LOL ♥

[13:28]  Gemma Allen (gemma.cleanslate): yes

[13:28]  Gemma Allen (gemma.cleanslate): those guys

[13:28]  herman Bergson: and an other thing....

[13:28]  Gemma Allen (gemma.cleanslate): own the world!!!!!!

[13:28]  Qwark Allen: seems the results of investigation about global warming, were changed to, so it could fit in the dominant paradigm of global warming

[13:28]  Debbie Dee (framdor): And... have you heard the term data mining? Imagine how much data there is to mine now?

[13:28]  herman Bergson: all researchers that show the opposite that was in the news never reach the media...

[13:29]  Gemma Allen (gemma.cleanslate): well some do here now

[13:29]  Kime Babenco: Recently proves that rat eating genetically reforemed food was causing enormous cancers

[13:29]  Qwark Allen: the main scientist in a interview about said, some of the results were not included in the conclusion

[13:29]  Umae Ying: my friends are scientists in EPA... trust me... global warming is real...

[13:29]  Qwark Allen: means all the investigation is a non sense

[13:29]  Gemma Allen (gemma.cleanslate): Yes-ah!

[13:29]  Gemma Allen (gemma.cleanslate): umae

[13:29]  Gemma Allen (gemma.cleanslate): no question

[13:29]  Debbie Dee (framdor): I also know global warming is very real

[13:30]  Qwark Allen: i believe in global warming

[13:30]  Qwark Allen: just not made by humans

[13:30]  herman Bergson: yes Qwark I agree :-)

[13:30]  Gemma Allen (gemma.cleanslate): not made but helped on by humans

[13:30]  Debbie Dee (framdor): There is a lot of evidence for global warming

[13:30]  Bejiita Imako: ah

[13:30]  Bejiita Imako: yes

[13:30]  Gemma Allen (gemma.cleanslate): all the gasses

[13:30]  Umae Ying: yes... made by humans

[13:30]  Qwark Allen: thats what we can conclude by the results that were omited in the final conclusion

[13:30]  Gemma Allen (gemma.cleanslate): we emit

[13:30]  Kime Babenco: Indeed, some results are not included in the publishingh... That sounds like not truth,

[13:30]  Qwark Allen: CO2 is a fake

[13:31]  andra Lyvette is Online

[13:31]  Gemma Allen (gemma.cleanslate): you will see :-)

[13:31]  herman Bergson: Big bussiness Qwark..!

[13:31]  Umae Ying: is real

[13:31]  Bejiita Imako: i wonder more and more if what i hear in news ect are really true or fake

[13:31]  Qwark Allen: just another way for the same bankers to get more $ from our pockets without producing nothing

[13:31]  Debbie Dee (framdor): But there are many research reports that show the warming, polar ice is at its lowest

[13:31]  Qwark Allen: yes true

[13:31]  Gemma Allen (gemma.cleanslate): ☆*¨¨*<♥*''*BEJIITA!!! *''*<♥:*¨¨*☆

[13:31]  Gemma Allen (gemma.cleanslate): that is why it is a good thing to look at many different sources

[13:31]  Qwark Allen: just not the CO2 is the respponsable

[13:31]  herman Bergson: hold on for a second....

[13:31]  herman Bergson: plz...

[13:32]  Debbie Dee (framdor): The CO2 is the main cause

[13:32]  Umae Ying: mixture of causes

[13:32]  Qwark Allen: npe

[13:32]  Qwark Allen: nope

[13:32]  Kime Babenco: There is of course a tend going on that everything has to go fast today... That leads to less observations and so to pre-judgments

[13:32]  herman Bergson: as I said HOLD ON for a second..:-)

[13:32]  Umae Ying: deforestation

[13:32]  Qwark Allen: you were made to believe in that by fake reports

[13:32]  Debbie Dee (framdor): qwark - read more. I've studied this for 10 years now

[13:32]  Gemma Allen (gemma.cleanslate): thank you debbie

[13:32]  Gemma Allen (gemma.cleanslate): ♥ LOL ♥

[13:32]  Gemma Allen (gemma.cleanslate): you try

[13:32]  Qwark Allen: maybe you should read about in independent news source

[13:32]  herman Bergson: ok...

[13:33]  Debbie Dee (framdor): I do.

[13:33]  Bejiita Imako: also all these panic alarms, now recently thay said eggs were dangerous

[13:33]  herman Bergson: statistically proven results need to be reproduced...by new research...

[13:33]  Bejiita Imako: and not long ago eggs was really healthy

[13:33]  Bejiita Imako: i believe the last one

[13:33]  Kime Babenco: Next week you read the contrary

[13:34]  herman Bergson: a lot of what is reported by the media is research results of one investigation only...

[13:34]  Qwark Allen: in the romans time average temperatures of the planet, were 4ºC above, what they are today, for example

[13:34]  Qwark Allen: and by the way you know , most of planets in the solar system are having global warming to?!

[13:34]  Debbie Dee (framdor): Not true qwark. give me a reference

[13:34]  Qwark Allen: maybe polar ice at Mars is melting cause of the SUVs there

[13:34]  Qwark Allen: °͜° l ☺ ☻ ☺ l °͜°

[13:34]  Qwark Allen: lol

[13:34]  herman Bergson: Didnt I ask you to HOLD ON for a minute??? :-)

[13:35]  Qwark Allen: sry

[13:35]  Kime Babenco: As I tried tio say, the hunger for medai attention is so big that some resulyts are denied and hury to be the have an article in a famous magazine

[13:35]  herman Bergson: ok..let me try again...

[13:36]  herman Bergson: a lot of what is told in the media is based on one research....

[13:36]  herman Bergson: scientists so and so discovered this or that...

[13:36]  herman Bergson: that is nice but kind of nonsense...

[13:37]  herman Bergson: what you need is at least 10 reseachs projects using exactly the same parameters etc. to get to a real conclusion

[13:37]  herman Bergson: let me give you an example...

[13:37]  herman Bergson: that is how I got to this lecture...

[13:38]  herman Bergson: aspartame…a sweet substance...but a threat to the sugar industry...

[13:38]  herman Bergson: just do some research on it...

[13:39]  herman Bergson: I got the information that it damages the central nervous system...so I did some research...

[13:39]  herman Bergson: because I consume products contianing aspartaam...

[13:39]  herman Bergson: what was the result?

[13:39]  Qwark Allen: o m g

[13:39]  herman Bergson: This lecture...

[13:39]  herman Bergson: all bogus...

[13:39]  Qwark Allen: aspartame, is another good example of misinformation

[13:40]  Gemma Allen (gemma.cleanslate): that is true

[13:40]  Kime Babenco: 3d way of writing it

[13:40]  Qwark Allen: contains methanol, which is a poison for our body

[13:40]  herman Bergson: there is an institute in Italy that produced a report that aspartaam causes cancer...

[13:40]  herman Bergson: yes....Qwark...

[13:40]  herman Bergson: however...

[13:40]  Bejiita Imako: read u can use it as ant poison

[13:40]  herman Bergson: one...

[13:40]  Bejiita Imako: but wonder if thats true

[13:40]  Qwark Allen: all diet food and drinks have it

[13:41]  Qwark Allen: you know who as the patent of it, and who produces it?

[13:41]  herman Bergson: it is just  ONE research on a limited population of rats

[13:41]  herman Bergson: TWO...

[13:41]  Debbie Dee (framdor):  ✧✩*❤*✩✧ G I G G L E S ✧✩*❤*✩

[13:41]  Lizzy Pleides: if something is a poison is a question of the dose

[13:41]  herman Bergson: some amounts of aspartaam the rats consumed equals about a hundred kilo a day in sugar for a human

[13:42]  Qwark Allen: i`ll get you a link, so you know who wants you to buy food with it

[13:42]  Bejiita Imako: sure its a chemical but sugar also is even if aspartam is synthetic,,, cant think its dangerous

[13:42]  Lizzy Pleides: sugar is a poison too if you eat too much of it

[13:42]  Qwark Allen: aspartic acid is also another poison for us

[13:43]  herman Bergson: A Dutch scientist said..now we have a new sweeteetener...Servia...I thik it is called...

[13:43]  Qwark Allen: all 3 ingredients there are bad for the human body

[13:43]  Kime Babenco: Toxic things was always about the dose... This atmosphere is 80 % nitorgen and 20 % oxygen... Less than 1 % toxical gasses

[13:43]  herman Bergson: pure natural..from a south american honey plant..

[13:43]  Kime Babenco: 40 % of oxygen would kill you

[13:43]  Gemma Allen (gemma.cleanslate): stevia

[13:43]  .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): Stevia

[13:43]  herman Bergson: yes Gemma..:-)

[13:43]  herman Bergson: He said…just wait and see...

[13:43]  Lizzy Pleides: stevia, ... ewwwww

[13:43]  Gemma Allen (gemma.cleanslate): and now an other truvia

[13:43]  Gemma Allen (gemma.cleanslate): Truvia

[13:44]  herman Bergson: in a couple of years you'll find a website telling you that it causes cancer...

[13:44]  Bejiita Imako: salt too, we need it to survive but too much or too little is dangerois acuse our ion/water balance get wrong then

[13:44]  herman Bergson: time for a new sweetener on the market

[13:44]  Gemma Allen (gemma.cleanslate): well we went through the egg issue

[13:44]  Gemma Allen (gemma.cleanslate): is now proven bogus

[13:45]  Debbie Dee (framdor): PVC is the one I worry about. We are in very close contact with it.

[13:45]  herman Bergson: Science has become business is some areas..that is th eproblem...

[13:45]  herman Bergson: What we valued most...truth...is for sale now

[13:46]  Ewa Aska is Offline

[13:46]  bergfrau Apfelbaum: sorry I have to go! a tenant needs my help, .... ty herman and ty class, see u next week! cheers, with red wine ;-)

[13:46]  Kime Babenco: I would like to say this : To everyone living ... life is a present... We have a nice planet... Why do we let it make destroy by fanatics or people who never have enough and never worked one hour for real ?

[13:46]  Lizzy Pleides: TC Bergie

[13:46]  Gemma Allen (gemma.cleanslate): well... i have to say truth has allways been for sale one way or another

[13:46]  Debbie Dee (framdor): Scientists do at least document stuff, so additional research adds to existing research.

[13:46]  .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): tc

[13:46]  herman Bergson: Yes KIme...good point!

[13:47]  Gemma Allen (gemma.cleanslate): that is true

[13:47]  .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): I have the feeling our planet is not good enough as it is

[13:47]  herman Bergson: And believe me Kime..like we do a lot of other people are fighting for the same cause

[13:48]  Kime Babenco: What would you change aboyut the planet if you were able to do so ?\

[13:48]  Qwark Allen: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2171973/Tree-ring-study-proves-climate-WARMER-Roman-Medieval-times-modern-industrial-age.html

[13:48]  Qwark Allen: this one about the temperatures in roman time

[13:48]  Lizzy Pleides: I have to go too, good night everybody!

[13:48]  .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): I don't want to change the way we live here.

[13:48]  Debbie Dee (framdor): bye lizzy

[13:48]  herman Bergson: OK QWark...and some other info about the statics and the Greek prof

[13:49]  Debbie Dee (framdor): Well, with 7 billion people, we do need to cut back a lot on consumption

[13:49]  herman Bergson: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118972683557627104.html

[13:49]  herman Bergson: worth reading...

[13:49]  Kime Babenco: It's too much actually... to give everyone a decent life

[13:49]  Qwark Allen: http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/07/10/global_warming_undermined_by_study_of_climate_change/

[13:49]  Qwark Allen: more about the same

[13:50]  herman Bergson: ok...

[13:50]  Qwark Allen: they lied , when they said we have now temperatures highest in the 100 000 years

[13:50]  Debbie Dee (framdor): qwark - 0.4 degrees is not significant.

[13:50]  Gemma Allen (gemma.cleanslate): bookmarked

[13:50]  Qwark Allen: its a total lie

[13:50]  herman Bergson: Yes Qwark...I know...

[13:50]  Debbie Dee (framdor): you said 4 degrees. and it is a limited study,

[13:50]  Qwark Allen: if you read more reports you`ll see the variance goes from 1 ºC to 4 ºC

[13:51]  Rodney Handrick is Online

[13:51]  herman Bergson: Just keep in mind....

[13:51]  Debbie Dee (framdor): look at their graph and the averaged trend line

[13:51]  Qwark Allen: the point is, the temperatures by then were higher then now, and the CO2 levels were significantly less then today

[13:51]  herman Bergson: we need 10 equal studies of the same subject to come to e real conclusion..

[13:51]  herman Bergson: But there arent...

[13:52]  Debbie Dee (framdor): Yes. The more data the better. Right now the polar ice is failing quickly.

[13:52]  herman Bergson: besides that a lot of results are politically interesting for scertainparties

[13:52]  Jannah (jannahnura) is Online

[13:52]  Kime Babenco: Yes... Herman... 10 different (at least ) have to come to the same conclusion

[13:52]  herman Bergson: Yes Kime...and there aren't!!!

[13:52]  Debbie Dee (framdor): Also, any real chance of fixing the problems is bad for consumption, and business

[13:53]  Gemma Allen (gemma.cleanslate) GIGGLES!!

[13:53]  Gemma Allen (gemma.cleanslate): ...LOL...

[13:53]  Gemma Allen (gemma.cleanslate): there is the point of his lecture

[13:53]  herman Bergson: smile

[13:53]  herman Bergson: yes Gemma :-)

[13:53]  Kime Babenco: You see the weather predictions ? 3 different systems only And not agrreing to each other some times

[13:53]  Qwark Allen: i know what i going to say before check those links --> back in 1952-1954 there was global cooling! in a time heavy industries were at their max

[13:53]  herman Bergson: Yes Kime....

[13:53]  Gemma Allen (gemma.cleanslate): weather and climate are two different things

[13:53]  herman Bergson: and the most important thing in this is ...they are based on COMPUTER MODELS!

[13:54]  Kime Babenco: THat's true... climate is the average over 30 years

[13:54]  herman Bergson: all is based on computer models...

[13:54]  Gemma Allen (gemma.cleanslate): ah the class ghost

[13:54]  herman Bergson: what you put in you get out....that is the problem

[13:54]  JF (janfolkert.alter) is Online

[13:54]  Qwark Allen: one thing you have to realize, since co2 foot print is a business, and bankers are profiting with it. we should suspect of a scam

[13:54]  herman Bergson: TRUE Qwark !!!!

[13:55]  Kime Babenco: Therfore is the toilet invented ;-)

[13:55]  Qwark Allen: this goes in the corruption we were talking about in last class

[13:55]  Laila Schuman is Online

[13:55]  herman Bergson: Main point is that we are manipulated by the media and socalled scientific data and results...

[13:56]  Bejiita Imako: indeed

[13:56]  Bejiita Imako: what can u really believe is true today

[13:56]  Debbie Dee (framdor): absolutely. and if climate change was not linked to consumption, then big business can carry on, and we can consume :)))

[13:56]  Qwark Allen: who are the owners of main media?

[13:56]  Bejiita Imako: worrying for sure

[13:56]  Qwark Allen: the same bankers

[13:56]  herman Bergson: Who are you to say that it is bogus when some computer model of the climate calculates that in no time our planet is all sea

[13:56]  Qwark Allen: eheheh

[13:57]  herman Bergson: the model is science...

[13:57]  Kime Babenco: In some way the band that sung Birth-School-Work -Dead is what the richer ones like us to live like

[13:57]  herman Bergson: Well..

[13:57]  herman Bergson: ok..

[13:57]  Qwark Allen: i`m getting your point herman, statistics nowadays are used as propaganda , so it fits the agenda of some ones

[13:57]  herman Bergson: I think we are ready for the revolution agian...

[13:57]  herman Bergson: so..

[13:57]  herman Bergson: thank you all for your participation :-)

[13:58]  Qwark Allen: AAHH!!!

[13:58]  Gemma Allen (gemma.cleanslate): ♥ Thank Youuuuuuuuuu!! ♥

[13:58]  Qwark Allen: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KqJo-6p78a8&feature=related

[13:58]  herman Bergson: class dismissed ^_^

[13:58]  Gemma Allen (gemma.cleanslate): Bye, Bye  ㋡ 

[13:58]  Gemma Allen (gemma.cleanslate): for now

[13:58]  Debbie Dee (framdor): Thanks herman. very thought provoking.

[13:58]  Kime Babenco: Only, the result of a revolution is not predictable

[13:58]  Qwark Allen: this video shows the most astonishing image of 2012

[13:58]  Rodney Handrick: thank you

[13:58]  Bejiita Imako: cu soon all

[13:58]  Qwark Allen: was taken by soho

[13:58]  Bejiita Imako: was really interesting as usual

[13:58]  Qwark Allen: check the time frame

[13:58]  Qwark Allen: its 3 days range of observation

[13:59]  Bejiita Imako: ㋡

[13:59]  Qwark Allen: ˜*•. ˜”*°•.˜”*°•  Bye !  •°*”˜.•°*”˜ .•*˜   ㋡

[13:59]  Qwark Allen: ¸¸.☆´ ¯¨☆.¸¸`☆** **☆´ ¸¸.☆¨¯`☆ H E R MA N ☆´ ¯¨☆.¸¸`☆** **☆´ ¸¸.☆¨¯`

[13:59]  Qwark Allen: ty

[13:59]  herman Bergson: Bye Qwark :-)

[13:59]  Kime Babenco: Bye everyone

[14:00]  Kime Babenco: And bye Herman

[14:00]  Debbie Dee (framdor): bye herman...

[14:00]  herman Bergson: Bye Debbie