The reasoning of proponents of long-termism is simple. They argue that the future holds "an enormous number of potential lives".
Humanity might survive for "millions or even billions of years", giving rise to "trillions of future humans" or even post-human beings if we avoid existential risks, such as nuclear war, pandemics, or artificial intelligence catastrophes., potentially.
Therefore, the well-being of future generations could vastly outweigh the importance of present-day concerns. If I understand correctly, this might imply that,
it might happen that we have to sacrifice a few people today to ensure a better future for the next generations.
And that is the big idea: long-termism holds that we have a moral obligation to ensure the well-being of future people.
As MacAskill writes: -QUOTE- We can build a world where everyone lives like the happiest people in the most well-off countries today, a world they want.
But we could do even better still, far better. The best that we have seen so far is a poor guide to what is possible. -END QUOTE-
This belief leans strongly on the expectation of the real emergence of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) and what wonders it will bring for humanity,
Let's talk about the moral meaning and weight of numbers of people and try to establish what is right or wrong to act in such a way that the greatest number of people will benefit, which then is the definition of "good".
Like MacAskill writes: -QUOTE- It’s common sense that future people count. So, too, is the idea that, morally, the numbers matter.
If you can save one person or ten from dying in a fire, then, all else being equal, you should save ten;
if you can cure a hundred people or a thousand of a disease, you should cure a thousand. This matters because the number of future people could be huge. -END QUOTE-
The phrase alone "It's common sense...."is questionable already. What does MacAskill mean? Do I lack common sense, when I question his claims?
But that aside, this idea of a choice between one or ten people. It made me wonder, is ethics really that simple? I am in any situation a Person with MY answer to the question "Why am I here?"
And that is my perspective when I am confronted with this dilemma of saving one or ten people.
Just imagine. You are the person who has to make this decision: save one or ten. You should save ten, says Macaskill, common sense. Ok, but suppose that one person is the Pope
and those ten are soldiers of his Swiss Guard, whose duty it is to protect and if necessary save the Pope at any cost. You are a devoted catholic. What is your choice?
Or you are a fanatic and convinced Nazi. That one person is SS Obersturmbahnführer Schmitz and those ten people are Jews. What will be the choice?
This belief, that simply sheer numbers morally oblige us to certain moral choices, is for me not just a matter of numbers and common sense.
and besides that, I not even have asked the question,
what "common sense" might be and who defines the criteria to decide what is and is not common sense.
But MacAskill goes on: -QUOTE- The idea that future people count is common sense. Future people, after all, are people. They will exist. They will have hopes and joys and pains and regrets, just like the rest of us. They just don’t exist yet. -END QUOTE-
Reading this one question comes to my mind: What do you think about all the ethical debates concerning abortion and euthanasia?
They are about both the rights of future people and the right to one's own death, and end a future. We already have different opinions about those issues. If you ask me, those millions of the future can wait.
This Long-termism is closely related to the belief in AGI and its benefits. Tech giants love it. It is their business. But Musk promised the self-driving car in 2017.
It still doesn't exist, nor does AGI. If we assume that long-term technological, social, and political changes are unpredictable,
I guess it would be best to invest all our energy, especially in the next generation, our children and grandchildren instead of in colonizing Mars.
Thank you for your attention...the floor is yours...
Main Sources:
MacMillan The Encyclopedia of Philosophy, 2nd edition
TABLE OF CONTENT -----------------------------------------------------------------
1 - 100 Philosophers 9 May 2009 Start of
2 - 25+ Women Philosophers 10 May 2009 this blog
3 - 25 Adventures in Thinking 10 May 2009
4 - Modern Theories of Ethics 29 Oct 2009
5 - The Ideal State 24 Febr 2010 / 234
6 - The Mystery of the Brain 3 Sept 2010 / 266
7 - The Utopia of the Free Market 16 Febr 2012 / 383
8. - The Aftermath of Neo-liberalism 5 Sept 2012 / 413
9. - The Art Not to Be an Egoist 6 Nov 2012 / 426
10 - Non-Western Philosophy 29 May 2013 / 477
11 - Why Science is Right 2 Sept 2014 / 534
12 - A Philosopher looks at Atheism 1 Jan 2015 / 557
13 - EVIL, a philosophical investigation 17 Apr 2015 / 580
14 - Existentialism and Free Will 2 Sept 2015 / 586
15 - Spinoza 2 Sept 2016 / 615
16 - The Meaning of Life 13 Febr 2017 / 637
17 - In Search of my Self 6 Sept 2017 / 670
18 - The 20th Century Revisited 3 Apr 2018 / 706
19 - The Pessimist 11 Jan 2020 / 819
20 - The Optimist 9 Febr 2020 / 824
21 - Awakening from a Neoliberal Dream 8 Oct 2020 / 872
22 - A World Full of Patterns 1 Apr 2021 / 912
23 - The Concept of Freedom 8 Jan 2022 / 965
24 - Materialism 7 Sept 2022 / 1011
25 - Historical Materialism 5 Oct 2023 / 1088
26 - The Bonobo and the Atheist 9 Jan 2024 / 1102
27 - Artificial Intelligence 9 Feb 2024 / 1108
28 - Why Am I Here 6 Sept 2024 / 1139
The Discussion
[13:16] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): Thank you Herman
[13:16] Max Chatnoir: So who are we going to be sacrificing for this glorious future?
[13:17] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): i know a few people...
[13:17] herman Bergson: Poeple on Medic Care and social Security....
[13:17] herman Bergson: That money can be spend on preparing coloniziong Mars for instance
[13:18] Max Chatnoir: So we should support only people who are actively reproducing?
[13:19] herman Bergson: Because there will be a future of billions of people and what we now decide will affect their well being
[13:19] herman Bergson: That seems to be also one of the claims, Max
[13:19] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): were will those billions live?
[13:19] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): in space, everywhere a la star trek i guess
[13:20] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): were will the food come from?
[13:20] herman Bergson: good question :-)
[13:21] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): hmm indeed replicators we can only dream about converting pure energy into food and COFFEE BLACK!
[13:21] herman Bergson: And why would the growth of the world populationn not stagnate some moment?
[13:21] herman Bergson: It happens in the Western countries....increasingly lower birthrates
[13:21] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): yes
[13:21] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): well we can glow food
[13:22] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): organics
[13:22] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): thats one solution
[13:22] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): were Bejiita?
[13:22] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): we already do taht
[13:22] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): hydrophonics
[13:22] herman Bergson: IN some people's mind we will be growing food on Mars,, Bejiita
[13:22] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): usung only water and nutritinent, no soil
[13:22] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): that also
[13:23] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): that's nothing new
[13:23] herman Bergson: One thing they overlook....homo sapiens isnt built for living in space
[13:23] bergfrau Apfelbaum: iwant my wiener schnitzeL! even on Mars!
[13:23] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): lol Bergie
[13:24] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): haha
[13:24] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): well its good
[13:24] herman Bergson: A justified claim, Bergie
[13:24] Max Chatnoir: Yes the requirements for human survival are significantly increased off the planet.
[13:24] Max Chatnoir: Off this planet.
[13:24] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): one thing i have gotten very fond of is a thing made from soy protein with the weird sounding name Oumph
[13:25] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): but....if they blow up this planet it's all for nothing
[13:25] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): the consistency is just , well i like it, no idea how many of u others have eaten it
[13:25] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): true Beertje
[13:25] Max Chatnoir: I haven't bejiita.
[13:25] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): (shudders)
[13:25] Max Chatnoir: Anything like Tofu?
[13:25] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): what should i say, its chewy, in a really nice way and very tasty
[13:26] bergfrau Apfelbaum: maybe we'll be technologically redesigned before we get to Mars.....then all we will need is oil
[13:26] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): aaa maybee but not still
[13:26] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): its more meat like
[13:26] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): like quorn but different consistency
[13:27] herman Bergson: Anyway....this Longtermism is a questionable philosophy...more a kind of a hype among High Tech nillionaiers
[13:27] Max Chatnoir: Not killing off the species is a good idea, if we can manage it.
[13:28] herman Bergson: It is highly speculative and the reference to the "common sense"argument makes it suspicious to me
[13:28] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): who has common sense?
[13:29] Max Chatnoir: And not trashing species diversity (sorry I used the "D" word) is also a good idea.
[13:29] herman Bergson: Not only that, but playing the common sense card a priori disqualifies your critic
[13:30] herman Bergson: The moment you disagree you show lacking common sense, soyou must be stupid or so
[13:31] herman Bergson: What is wrong with the word "Diversity", MAx?
[13:31] Max Chatnoir: Good question!
[13:31] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): why did you say "sorry?"
[13:31] herman Bergson: It is in the dictionary....:-)
[13:31] Max Chatnoir: I was being snippy.
[13:32] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): ?
[13:32] Max Chatnoir: sarcastic, given recent attempts to erase the idea of diversity from our history.
[13:33] Max Chatnoir: US history.
[13:33] herman Bergson: So, we'll leave this longtermism behind as an inadequate answer to the question of what the meaning of life is or Why I am here?
[13:34] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): how could they erase diversity from history? Diversity is a part of life
[13:34] Max Chatnoir: No kidding!
[13:34] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): T believes he can do anything
[13:34] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): you should be white, hetero ect
[13:35] herman Bergson: No I get is...the cure words: diversity, equity and inclusion
[13:35] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): its just so .....
[13:35] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): DEI
[13:35] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): aaa yes
[13:36] herman Bergson: DEI....which is latin , dativus, meaning....for God
[13:36] Max Chatnoir: Yes, ironic!
[13:36] herman Bergson: NO...genetivus....Deus Dei....of God
[13:37] herman Bergson: My Latin has become rusty :-)
[13:37] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): look at the ceiling....diversities of gods:)
[13:37] herman Bergson: YEAH...Mmore than 3300 for sale :-)
[13:37] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): ツ
[13:37] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): aaah
[13:38] herman Bergson: And not a single one has brought us ever lasting peace on earth
[13:38] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): we need another one then
[13:38] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): hmmm
[13:40] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): as Q in star trek said, we dont belong in space cause we are still savage beasts ans he was right, that series was made in 80s-90s its 2025 now and we are still blowing each otuer up like there is no tomorrow
[13:40] Max Chatnoir: Well, I don't want humans to go away, because I think we're pretty interesting, but we can't sacrifice everything else.
[13:40] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): indeed
[13:41] herman Bergson: Interesting we are indeed, Max....
[13:41] herman Bergson: I hope my next lecture will be interesting too again :-)
[13:41] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): ㋡
[13:41] herman Bergson whispers: So, let's get ready for that one...:-)
[13:42] herman Bergson: Thank you all again for your attention...
[13:42] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): thank you Herman
[13:42] bergfrau Apfelbaum: thank you! Herman and class
[13:42] herman Bergson: Class dismissed...
[13:42] Max Chatnoir: Thank you, Herman. That was very thought-provoking.
[13:42] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): ill cheer u up with a thing i found yesterday
[13:42] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): let me fiind it
[13:42] Max Chatnoir: What?
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