Monday, March 24, 2025

1178: Longtermism...What is that?

 I almost don't know where to begin. I have been studying literature for hours now and line after line appears again a new subject, issue, or theme that I should address to clarify the intended subject of today's lecture.

   

There really is a lot to talk about. To begin with I'll quote from an article by Paris Marx in the New Statesman, "Elon Musk's useful philosopher". The first thing I learned was,

  

that Elon Musk is not just the Tesla man. By the way, he didn't invent or develop Teslas, he bought it from two engineers, just like Bill Gates never invented MS-Dos but obtained it from another source.

    

Elon Musk is a follower of a certain philosophy and everything he does is related to that philosophy. To learn about it was new to me and besides that, about what I learned, I really wonder: Seriously....?

  

But let me quote Paris Marx to create the context:"Over the past decade or so, the billionaires of Silicon Valley have graced us with their visions for the far future of our species. 

  

Musk wants us to colonize Mars as the first step towards extending the “light of consciousness” beyond our planet. Jeff Bezos wants to see a trillion people in floating space colonies, lest we succumb to “stasis and rationing” here on Earth. 

  

Longtermism furnishes their egomaniacal plots with a seemingly moral (and scholarly) makeover."

   

There is the big term I stumbled upon: Longtermism. What on earth should that be? Let's start at the beginning. We are discussing at the moment the question if wealth and the pursuit of wealth is a real candidate for the meaning of life, for the answer to "Why am I here?"

   

Here you run into the question of whether pursuing wealth is a goal or a means to? Aristotle already discusses this distinction in his "Ethica Nicomachea": the pursuit of wealth never can be a goal, 

   

but wealth can be used as a means to achieve certain goals. Everything depends on the value of the goal. Here comes the link with the billionaires of Silicon Valley.

  

As tech people, they like to see themselves as visionary minds, who are changing the world with all their products and big money. This is recently reinforced by the leap forward in the development of Artificial intelligence.

   

The assumption is that artificial general intelligence (AGI), which refers to computers matching or exceeding the intellectual capabilities of humans, is inevitable,

  

something that’s not at all clear to critical experts in the field. And not only to critical experts. You may count me in too. Let me elaborate a little on AGI, for it plays a crucial role in this context.

   

Artificial general intelligence (AGI) is a type of highly autonomous artificial intelligence (AI) intended to match or surpass human cognitive capabilities across most or all economically valuable work or cognitive labor. This contrasts with narrow AI, which is limited to specific tasks.

   

AI pioneer Herbert A. Simon speculated in 1965 that "machines will be capable, within twenty years, of doing any work a man can do". This prediction failed to come true. 

  

Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen believed that such intelligence is unlikely in the 21st century because it would require "unforeseeable and fundamentally unpredictable breakthroughs" and a "scientifically deep understanding of cognition".

  

Nevertheless, the dream is that AGI or its successor will be equal to the human mind, or to put it in another way: a computer running on AGI could eventually develop a real independent Mind.

  

Enough information for today, I guess. So, this leaves us at least two term on which you can do research and a next issue is research on how Elon Musk is related to these terms.

  

 ..the terms :-) .......Longtermism and AGI


Thank you for your attention...the floor is yours...

   

   Main Sources:

MacMillan The Encyclopedia of Philosophy, 2nd edition

Routledge Encyclopedia of Philosophy, 1995
 http://plato.stanford.edu/contents.htm
Rens Bod:  Waarom ben ik hier? (2024)
Carlo Cipolla: The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity (1976)


TABLE OF CONTENT -----------------------------------------------------------------  


  1 - 100 Philosophers                                              9 May 2009  Start of

  2 - 25+ Women Philosophers                              10 May 2009  this blog

  3 - 25 Adventures in Thinking                               10 May 2009

  4 - Modern Theories of Ethics                              29 Oct  2009

  5 - The Ideal State                                               24 Febr 2010   /   234

  6 - The Mystery of the Brain                                  3 Sept 2010   /   266

  7 - The Utopia of the Free Market                       16 Febr 2012    /   383

  8. - The Aftermath of Neo-liberalism                      5 Sept 2012   /   413

  9. - The Art Not to Be an Egoist                             6 Nov  2012   /   426                        

10  - Non-Western Philosophy                               29 May 2013    /   477

11  -  Why Science is Right                                      2 Sept 2014   /   534      

12  - A Philosopher looks at Atheism                        1 Jan  2015   /   557

13  - EVIL, a philosophical investigation                 17 Apr  2015   /   580                

14  - Existentialism and Free Will                             2 Sept 2015   /   586         

15 - Spinoza                                                             2 Sept 2016   /   615

16 - The Meaning of Life                                        13 Febr 2017   /   637

17 - In Search of  my Self                                        6 Sept 2017   /   670

18 - The 20th Century Revisited                              3 Apr  2018    /   706

19 - The Pessimist                                                  11 Jan 2020    /   819

20 - The Optimist                                                     9 Febr 2020   /   824

21 - Awakening from a Neoliberal Dream                8 Oct  2020   /   872

22 - A World Full of Patterns                                    1 Apr 2021    /   912

23 - The Concept of Freedom                                  8 Jan 2022    /   965

24 - Materialism                                                      7 Sept 2022   /  1011

25 - Historical Materialism                                       5 Oct 2023    /  1088

26 - The Bonobo and the Atheist                             9 Jan 2024    /  1102

27 - Artificial Intelligence                                          9 Feb 2024    /  1108

28 - Why Am I Here                                                 6 Sept 2024   /  1139

 

The Discussion

   

[13:18] Max Chatnoir: If AGI was used to get the DEI out of the record, it's not very good at it.

[13:18] Max Chatnoir: Jackie Robinson?  Enola Gay?

[13:18] herman Bergson: No...AGI does not really exist...what wrks is narrow AI...

[13:19] herman Bergson: AI for specific tasks..like playing chess

[13:19] Max Chatnoir: They didn't even review it!

[13:19] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): ah indeed AGI would be equal to Skynet or Terminator

[13:19] herman Bergson: Ahhh ja, Enola Gay...I heard about that error...to stupid

[13:19] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): only sci fi

[13:19] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): hmm

[13:20] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): yes!

[13:20] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): well EVERYTHING about Trump and Musk is STUPID so

[13:20] herman Bergson: But this Silicon Valley SciFi thinkers play an important role at the moment...at least in the US

[13:21] Max Chatnoir: Does longtermism mean they want to live forever?

[13:21] herman Bergson: I'll discuss it in the next lecture, MAx, but no...it is not about that wish

[13:22] herman Bergson: It is about our responsibility for future generations....

[13:22] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): she fell out of the sky:))

[13:22] Max Chatnoir: OK, thanks.

[13:22] Max Chatnoir: Hi, Bergie!

[13:22] bergfrau Apfelbaum: halliehellos .-) whisper

[13:22] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): hi Bergie

[13:22] herman Bergson: Not only the next generation, but for millions to come too

[13:22] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): hi Beetje

[13:22] herman Bergson: Hi Bergie :-)

[13:23] bergfrau Apfelbaum: sorry....i could not come earlier :-)

[13:23] herman Bergson: Longtermism is the beloved philosophy of the billionaires

[13:24] herman Bergson: The American billionaires mainly. I guess

[13:24] herman Bergson: Especially the Tech guys

[13:24] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): what is the benefit for us?

[13:25] herman Bergson: I ran into a mountain of new information....

[13:25] herman Bergson: Good question Beertje :-)

[13:26] herman Bergson: No direct answer yet

[13:27] herman Bergson: It is not focused on our benefits today but more on our moral obligations toward coming generations

[13:27] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): regarding what they are doing with DOGE now i see it as they do not care at all about us ordinary people

[13:27] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): we should just go and die while they go to Mars alone with their billions

[13:28] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): we are just loosers to them

[13:28] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): what is the use of billions on mars?

[13:28] herman Bergson: No Bejiita....

[13:29] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): indeed, but this is the image i get after they cut all health , education ect for everyone but themselves

[13:29] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): only the rich should survive

[13:29] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): more or less

[13:29] herman Bergson: Yje story is more that we have to free as much money as possible from government overhed to do the right thing with that money

[13:29] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): or idk what they are thinking but its really ugly

[13:29] herman Bergson: And Musk knows what is the right thing and what is overhead

[13:30] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): realy?

[13:30] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): are u sure bout that?

[13:30] herman Bergson: And Trump likes to believe it because it creates financial space to lower taxes for his billionaire buddies

[13:31] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): aha

[13:31] herman Bergson: I may be exaggerating a little :-)

[13:31] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): it seems plausible though indeed

[13:32] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): thats his goal afterall, everything for himself and maybee his uber rich allies also

[13:32] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): nothing for the rest of us

[13:34] herman Bergson: Ok, now we have to figure out what Longtermism means....

[13:34] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): hmm

[13:35] herman Bergson: In my opinion a rather weird philosphy...but very popular among the rich elite (in the US)

[13:36] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): is that why Musk has so many children?

[13:36] herman Bergson: yes....

[13:36] herman Bergson: you need to create as many new generations as possible

[13:37] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): only the rich I suppose

[13:37] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): aha

[13:37] herman Bergson: That is one of the  criticisms of that philosophy indeed Beertje :-)

[13:38] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): what is another criticism?

[13:39] herman Bergson: That is for next week, Beertje....:-)

[13:39] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont):

[13:39] herman Bergson: I still have to do some extra research this weekend :-)

[13:39] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): ah

[13:39] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): ok:)

[13:40] herman Bergson: Oh...an other term you might investigate.....!

[13:40] herman Bergson: Effective Altruism

[13:40] herman Bergson: Belongs to the family we are discussing

[13:41] Max Chatnoir: Interesting!

[13:41] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): ah

[13:41] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): ok

[13:41] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): hmm indeed

[13:41] herman Bergson: All brand new stuff (for me) Max :-)

[13:42] Max Chatnoir: Be nice only to those who deserve it?

[13:42] Max Chatnoir: How is that defined?

[13:42] herman Bergson: Ok

[13:43] herman Bergson: Oh...you mean that Effective Altruism....

[13:43] Max Chatnoir: Yes...

[13:43] herman Bergson: No, check that out...it is much more

[13:43] Max Chatnoir: Just guessing.  But I will.

[13:44] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): ah

[13:44] herman Bergson: I just ran into it today myself, Max....

[13:44] herman Bergson: Seems to be the latest philosophical trends

[13:45] herman Bergson: But basically it is of course old ideas in a new outfit :-)

[13:45] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): so a lot of homework this week-end

[13:45] herman Bergson: yes Beertje....

[13:45] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): i guess so!

[13:46] herman Bergson: So, I wish you all a pleasant and interesting weekend :-)

[13:46] Max Chatnoir: That's how he thinks he is reconstructing the government?

[13:46] herman Bergson: I guess that is what he thinks indeed Max

[13:46] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): maybe thats so

[13:47] Max Chatnoir: I would not call it rational.

[13:47] Max Chatnoir: But I will do my homework.  :-)

[13:47] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): no idea, he is just causing damage at the moment I say

[13:48] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): but as said he dont cre about the non rich, just like Trump

[13:48] herman Bergson: As we learned...if iy is not rational it is stupid :-)))

[13:48] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): care

[13:48] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): true herman

[13:49] herman Bergson: Ok...thank you all again...and get ready for the next load :-)

[13:49] herman Bergson: Class dismissed....

[13:49] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): and then he sits high on ketamine crying and wondering why everyone hates him

[13:49] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): Thank you Herman

[13:49] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): well Musk, go figure that out yourself! Its obvious!