Thursday, October 3, 2019

801: The Limits to the Growth....

If there is one legacy of the 20th century that has a great impact on our daily life in the 21st century, then it is environmental awareness and our understanding of ecological systems.
The ecological movement originated in the mid-19th century. The original word, oecology, was first used by the German Ernst Haeckel (1834 -1919), zoologist, marine biologist.
and purposely referred to economics, which is also derived from the Greek "oikos", "house / home." 
There has always been a close link between ecologie and economy, and many German economic thinkers from the early 20th century were enthusiastic about the concept of ecologie. 
Before the 1960s ecologie was primarily a mindset in which the countryside - nature, peasant life - was contrasted with the city life.
Today the meaning of Ecology refers to a branch of biology that studies the interactions among organisms (like us :-) and their biophysical environment, which includes both biotic and abiotic components. 
In 1964 US president Johnson  pointed in a speech at the deterioration of the environment and the need to take action.
The extensive use of DDT in agriculture and its destructive effects had alerted biologists, like  e.g. Rachel Carson 
with her book "Silent Spring" (1962), a serious indictment of the devastating effect of pesticide use.
In 1969, 39 countries met in Rome to talk about pollution. In their report, "The Limits of Growth," published in 1972, they concluded that it was five to twelve.
The Limits to Growth (LTG) is a  report on the computer simulation of exponential economic and population growth with a finite supply of resources.
The study used the World3 computer model to simulate the consequence of interactions between the earth and human systems. 
The model was based on five variables: "population, food production, industrialization, pollution, and consumption of nonrenewable natural resources". 
Two of the scenarios saw "overshoot and collapse" of the global system by the mid- to latter-part of the 21st century, while a third scenario resulted in a "stabilized world".

After reviewing their computer simulations, the research team came to the following conclusions:
1# Given business as usual, i.e., no changes to historical growth trends, the limits to growth on earth would become evident by 2072, 
leading to "sudden and uncontrollable decline in both population and industrial capacity".
This includes the following: Global Industrial output per capita reaches a peak around 2008, followed by a rapid decline;
Global Food per capita reaches a peak around 2020, followed by a rapid decline;   

Global Services per capita reaches a peak around 2020, followed by a rapid decline;
Global population reaches a peak in 2030, followed by a rapid decline.
Look at the diagram behind me and you'll notice that we are in the midst of what this Club of Rome has predicted.

Of course, the conclusions in the report were attacked and even ridiculed by all kinds of critics. However, contemporary research begins to confirm the conclusions of the report.
Christian Parenti, an American investigative journalist, academic, and author, writing in 2012,
sees parallels between the reception of LTG and the contemporary climate debate, 
"That said, 'The Limits to Growth' was a scientifically rigorous and credible warning that was actively rejected by the intellectual watchdogs of powerful economic interests. 
A similar story is playing out now around climate science and climate change."  
Fooling around with my granddaughter of almost four years old I sometimes wonder about HER world.
But I stay optimistic....we can fix it....thank you...

The Discussion

[13:27] herman Bergson: Does anyone of you recall The Club of Rome and its report?
[13:28] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): i heard of it, but never have read it
[13:28] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): not familiar here
[13:28] CB Axel: I never heard of it.
[13:28] herman Bergson: Amazing.....
[13:28] CB Axel: I do know about the Rachel Carson book, but I never read it, either.
[13:28] herman Bergson: It was a sensation in 1972.....
[13:28] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): club of Rome sound like a party place in SL
[13:29] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): yes, it was then when I heard of it
[13:29] CB Axel: In 1972, I was thinking about boys and getting into college. :)
[13:29] herman Bergson: Its predictions  apply to the years we live in now....
[13:29] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): why is it not mentioned today?
[13:29] herman Bergson: Yes CB...boys can be very distracting....
[13:30] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): hehe
[13:30] herman Bergson: It still is mentioned today, Beertje....especially its rpedictions and the correctness of these predictions...
[13:30] CB Axel: Has industrial output started declining?
[13:30] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): by the government?
[13:31] herman Bergson: But the report itself was a kind of doomsday scenario for the world
[13:31] CB Axel: Businesses and the government are ignoring it.
[13:31] herman Bergson: That's the point CB......
[13:31] herman Bergson: This idiotic obsession with permanent economical growth...
[13:32] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): it can't go on
[13:32] herman Bergson: The obsession of economists
[13:32] CB Axel: I liked what Greta Turnberg said about that.
[13:32] herman Bergson: What did she say?
[13:32] herman Bergson: STOP IT....!    ???
[13:32] CB Axel: *Thunburg
[13:32] CB Axel: sorry
[13:33] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): How dare you!
[13:33] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): to the industrials
[13:33] CB Axel: "fairy tales of eternal economic growth"
[13:33] herman Bergson: true...
[13:34] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): hmm indeed its insane
[13:34] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): never getting satisfied
[13:34] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): MORE MORE MOOOOORRRRE!
[13:34] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): that's the BIG issue
[13:34] herman Bergson: there are economists who begin to question this assumption
[13:34] herman Bergson: the sanety of it
[13:34] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): ah
[13:35] herman Bergson: But take into account...already in 1972 it was made clear to the world that this obsession with growth  would lead to disaster....
[13:36] Lente (lentelies.anatine) is offline.
[13:36] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): but nobody listened
[13:36] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): its so obvious
[13:36] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): but yes no one listened
[13:36] herman Bergson: we're now about a 40 years later and nothing has been done withthat observation
[13:36] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): esp not the stock markets
[13:36] herman Bergson: no...
[13:36] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): and the shareholders
[[13:36] herman Bergson: we now have a huge plastic soup in the oceans
[13:36] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): :(
[13:36] CB Axel: Some listened. Birds are no longer being poisoned by DDT. The air is clearer. Rivers almost never catch on fire anymore.
[13:37] herman Bergson: Same story with climate change....
[13:37] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): at least the worst poisons seem to go down
[13:37] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): here is more dirt in the air than in 1970
[13:37] herman Bergson: True CB....DDT is forbidden now
[13:37] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): but still
[13:37] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): CO2
[13:38] CB Axel: Trump is trying to remove restrictions that improved air and water quality.
[13:38] herman Bergson: And in the White House lives a guy who cancels all kinds of environmental measures made by his predecessor(s)
[13:38] CB Axel: And allow drilling in wilderness areas and fracking.
[13:38] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): he is insane
[13:39] herman Bergson: Yes..let's get to the National Parks in ALaska...!
[13:39] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): Trump and this rainforest burning madman in brazin is on same side
[13:39] CB Axel: We need to start dumping our garbage on the White House lawn.
[13:39] CB Axel: Pollute his air and water
[13:39] herman Bergson: Your garbage is already there, CB :-(
[13:39] CB Axel: LOL
[13:39] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): pollute his hair!
[13:39] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): true thats probably the only way to make him realize that this is not good!
[13:39] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): hahahahaha yes
[13:39] CB Axel: He's not my garbage. I would have incinerated him back in the 80's.
[13:40] CB Axel: I think his hair probably is a pollutant.
[13:40] CB Axel: It's certainly not natural.
[13:40] herman Bergson: At least the environmental awareness we inherited from the 20th century....
[13:40] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): yes its probably already more toxic them methylisicyanate or something similar
[13:40] herman Bergson: We may see that as a positive conclusion
[13:41] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): thats why he look orange as he complaints about
[13:41] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): but what to do about it Herman?
[13:41] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako):
[13:41] herman Bergson: It is a slow slow process Beertje...
[13:41] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): maybe too slow?
[13:41] herman Bergson: I guess it will take generations to clean up the mess we made of this world
[13:42] herman Bergson: If it is too slow and mankind disappears from this planet...nothing is lost, I'd say ^_^
[13:42] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): have the generations the time to clean up?
[13:43] CB Axel: Yes. It's taken hundreds of years to destroy the environment. It will take more than one presidential term to fix it, yet that seems to be what people expect.
[13:43] herman Bergson: Well...I read a nice argument related to human ingenuity.....
[13:43] herman Bergson: yes CB, that is always the problem......
[13:44] herman Bergson: we think everything is fixed within our lifetime
[13:44] CB Axel: If a president doesn't fix everything in 8 years the public votes for the other party. Nothing gets done because there is no continuity.
[13:44] herman Bergson: Don't give up....
[13:45] herman Bergson: In the period 1500 -1800 people began to worry about international trade....because ships were build of wood and it became scarce...
[13:45] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): Trump destroys a lot in 8 years
[13:45] CB Axel: Destruction is easier than building.
[13:45] herman Bergson: all of a sudden this situation and worry disappeared when ships were built of steel
[13:46] CB Axel: It' takes months to put up a big building but it can take one hour to topple it like the old World Trade Center.
[13:46] herman Bergson: Destruction always has been easier than building CB
[13:47] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): yes :(
[13:48] herman Bergson: One hurricane can annihilate a whole village, that stood there for a hundred years
[13:48] CB Axel nods
[13:48] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): what can we do to save the world?
[13:48] CB Axel: Yet people expected Obama to fix everything in 8 years.
[13:48] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): there is one explanation for this in physics, everything trives toward chaos and random order, not the other way around
[13:48] CB Axel: Entropy
[13:49] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): aaa yes that was the term for it
[13:49] herman Bergson: That's beyond my understanding :-))
[13:49] herman Bergson: I'll check it out :-)
[13:49] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): simply because there are millions of possible orders of things in chaos but only one in order
[13:49] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): or a few
[13:50] CB Axel:
[13:50] CB Axel: That's a fun video about entropy set to song. :)
[13:50] herman Bergson: For good order then, I'd liker to thank you again for your participation :-)
[13:50] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): if u for ex swipe down stuff from a table how big would the chance be of all of them lining up in exactly same order on the floor
[13:50] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): NONE
[13:50] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): its to many variation
[13:50] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): s
[13:51] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): same with build vs destroy
[13:51] herman Bergson: before I forget....
[13:51] herman Bergson:
[13:51] CB Axel: Nice. I'll have to give that a look. :)
[13:51] herman Bergson: There you can download as PDF the original report "The Limits of Growth"
[13:52] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): aaa ok
[13:52] Magda (magda1851) is offline.
[13:52] herman Bergson: Class dismissed .....
[13:52] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): ah thank you   

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