I interrupted our narrative, because of a column in my newspaper that was about the use of artificial intelligence in such a way that it almost annihilated morality for the user of the system.
let's get back to our original narrative: we were discussing causality and the question to what extent artificial intelligence can discover causal relations.
The first, simplest level is finding associations, nothing more than David Hume's custom. This level is just about looking at events or data that occur together, coincidentally or otherwise.
Like the rooster crowing and the sunrise. Or the size of a house and its price. Or the level of education and consumption of chocolate in a given country. That kind of relation AI can grasp.
This is purely about patterns, not about the exact relationship between them. Large amounts of data are perfect for this. A webshop can see that people who buy football boots often also order shin guards, without there being a cause-and-effect relationship between them.
The second level on the ladder of causality goes one step further. This is where interventions come into play. Suppose someone has a headache and then takes an aspirin and then you observe the effect.
There is however a higher level of causality and that is the level where counterfactuals come into play and that is the real level on which you can observe a cause-and-effect relation.
Let's get back to level two: a person takes an aspirin against a headache. If the headache disappears, was the aspirin the cause of it? You can't be sure. Maybe it had disappeared without the aspirin as well.
To be sure of the causal relation between aspirin and headache we need a counterfactual question: Suppose the person had not taken the aspirin, would the headache have disappeared yet?
If the answer is NO, then we have a real causal relation between two events. This is what we can conclude. It still is too much for artificial intelligence. It simply works with big data and is only able to see associations between data.
Big data are dumb. We only get real knowledge of causal relations through interventions and counterfactuals. At this moment artificial intelligence is not yet capable of understanding and discovering real causal relations.
The weak point of the use of big data is, that it is based on the assumption, that the world will stay the same, the uniformity of nature principle as David Hume formulated it.
The big question is, when can you come to a conclusion based on induction, and when not? The only "rule" we can use here is statistics, but in the Netherlands, we have witnessed a tragedy, based on such an approach.
More than ten thousand families got into serious trouble with the government based on the use of a very biased system to determine whether they were entitled to financial support or not.
It was a complete disaster. Families had unjustifiably to repay sometimes tens of thousands of euros. There were so-called "causal" relations between the not-Dutch family name and financial requests for child support.
The simple bias was: you are an immigrant from a foreign country, so you probably are cheating and are not entitled to financial child support from the government.
AI is not yet capable of understanding real causal relations. That still is a prerogative of Homo Sapiens.
Thank you for your attention again....
Main Sources:
MacMillan The Encyclopedia of Philosophy, 2nd edition
TABLE OF CONTENT -----------------------------------------------------------------
1 - 100 Philosophers 9 May 2009 Start of
2 - 25+ Women Philosophers 10 May 2009 this blog
3 - 25 Adventures in Thinking 10 May 2009
4 - Modern Theories of Ethics 29 Oct 2009
5 - The Ideal State 24 Febr 2010 / 234
6 - The Mystery of the Brain 3 Sept 2010 / 266
7 - The Utopia of the Free Market 16 Febr 2012 / 383
8. - The Aftermath of Neo-liberalism 5 Sept 2012 / 413
9. - The Art Not to Be an Egoist 6 Nov 2012 / 426
10 - Non-Western Philosophy 29 May 2013 / 477
11 - Why Science is Right 2 Sept 2014 / 534
12 - A Philosopher looks at Atheism 1 Jan 2015 / 557
13 - EVIL, a philosophical investigation 17 Apr 2015 / 580
14 - Existentialism and Free Will 2 Sept 2015 / 586
15 - Spinoza 2 Sept 2016 / 615
16 - The Meaning of Life 13 Febr 2017 / 637
17 - In Search of my Self 6 Sept 2017 / 670
18 - The 20th Century Revisited 3 Apr 2018 / 706
19 - The Pessimist 11 Jan 2020 / 819
20 - The Optimist 9 Febr 2020 / 824
21 - Awakening from a Neoliberal Dream 8 Oct 2020 / 872
22 - A World Full of Patterns 1 Apr 2021 / 912
23 - The Concept of Freedom 8 Jan 2022 / 965
24 - Materialism 7 Sept 2022 / 1011
25 - Historical Materialism 5 Oct 2023 / 1088
26 - The Bonobo and the Atheist 9 Jan 2024 / 1102
27 - Artificial Intelligence 9 Feb 2024 / 1108
The Discussion
[13:18] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): Thank you Herman
[13:19] Max Chatnoir: Thank you, Herman.
[13:19] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): it was terrible, some even lost their children
[13:19] herman Bergson: Not only their children...even their marriage
[13:19] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): yes and houses
[13:19] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): now thats an awfu thing, how can u let an AI handle things likethis, well i guess its so u can sack human employees and earn more money while at same time destroying the life for 1000s who were misjudged by the AI
[13:20] herman Bergson: a complete disaster...
[13:20] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): guuh!
[13:20] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): true
[13:20] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): :(
[13:20] Max Chatnoir: Did the AI bias come out of the bias in the database, which would have been human bias?
[13:21] herman Bergson: It was based on the family name, Max....foreign...not Dutch = possible cheater
[13:21] herman Bergson: no...IS fraudulent...
[13:21] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): because there wer so many cheaters in the country before
[13:22] herman Bergson: It really is a shame....
[13:22] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): hmm, not the right parameter to use for sure!
[13:22] herman Bergson: Indeed Bejiita
[13:22] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): as said AI is dumb it just rely on variabes that we tell it to use
[13:22] Gemma (gemma.cleanslate): still in the beginning struggles after years
[13:22] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): just like when i program my games
[13:23] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): and it's still not solved by the government
[13:23] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): I decode what the machine is doing and if i use wrong data it wort work properly
[13:23] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): at least in gamedev this means not a total disaster like in this case
[13:24] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): sure u can get angry players if you release games full of bugs, thats a classic nowadays
[13:24] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): but its not destroying their lives
[13:24] herman Bergson: So far, best thing AI can do is associate data with eachother
[13:24] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): i'd rather have an angry player then loosing my child Bejiita
[13:24] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): exactly
[13:25] Gemma (gemma.cleanslate): there is not a day that goes by with no article about who is going to control AI and who wants no control and the fighting going on
[13:25] herman Bergson: That is why ChatGPT and others still are so superficial in their respponses
[13:25] herman Bergson: It is humans that control AI, Gemma
[13:25] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): yes
[13:26] herman Bergson: We are morally responsible for how it works
[13:26] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): we built and programmed the machine
[13:26] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): and started it
[13:26] herman Bergson: yes
[13:26] herman Bergson: Pull the plug and we are morally responsible again
[13:27] herman Bergson: Makes me think of Tuesday's lecture....
[13:27] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): ah
[13:27] Max Chatnoir: with the AI choosing attack targets?
[13:28] herman Bergson: AI selected the targets...sorry I ma not morally responsible for that...I just push buttons
[13:28] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): GROAN
[13:28] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): hmm yes
[13:28] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): "its just a computer game come on!"
[13:28] herman Bergson: Like the Ukranians using drones...
[13:29] herman Bergson: and on Youtube you see how a Russian tank is blown up.....
[13:29] herman Bergson: Not a tank...three people are killed...!
[13:29] herman Bergson: It all is horrible....
[13:30] Gemma (gemma.cleanslate): it is
[13:30] bergfrau Apfelbaum: every war is terrible! Guns are SHIT
[13:31] herman Bergson: OK...I don't like the Russians in what they are doing too, but yet....people are killed with IT techchology inbetween....
[13:31] Gemma (gemma.cleanslate): yes
[13:31] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): well that i hope they realize at least, The russians are the agressors however, but indeed its a tragedy on both sides, and many russial soldiers dont want this at all, they are forced by Putin against their will
[13:31] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): have read horrible stories from both sides
[13:31] Gemma (gemma.cleanslate): how many gaza children will live with severe wounds for ever and how many died
[13:31] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): just wish it could stop
[13:32] Guestboook van tipjar stand: Gemma Cleanslate donated L$100. Thank you very much, it is much appreciated!
[13:32] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): and that too, as said, cant we just stop blowing each other up? its like killing each other is one of our primary drives just like sleep and sex
[13:33] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): at least for many it seels so
[13:33] herman Bergson: Maybe atificial intellingence has some good...but our own intelligence is often really questionable....:-(
[13:33] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): seems
[13:33] Gemma (gemma.cleanslate) GIGGLES!!
[13:33] Gemma (gemma.cleanslate): ...LOL...
[13:33] Gemma (gemma.cleanslate): right
[13:33] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): true indeed Herman
[13:33] Gemma (gemma.cleanslate): how many years war has been around
[13:33] herman Bergson: So, better we enjoy our weekend again....in an intelligent way :-)
[13:33] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): humas are the only species that do war
[13:33] Gemma (gemma.cleanslate): hope it is a nice spring one
[13:34] bergfrau Apfelbaum: little eggs, need weapons!
[13:34] herman Bergson: No no, Bejiita there you are wrong....
[13:34] Gemma (gemma.cleanslate): thinking some rain to start
[13:34] herman Bergson: chimps do the same
[13:34] Gemma (gemma.cleanslate): lots of animals do
[13:34] Max Chatnoir: They do.
[13:34] Gemma (gemma.cleanslate): territory claimers
[13:34] herman Bergson: We are not unique in this matter
[13:34] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): but not in the scale we do, well also we have advanced weapons
[13:34] herman Bergson: even ants fight wars
[13:34] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): hmm thats true
[13:35] Gemma (gemma.cleanslate): was just going to say that
[13:35] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): but still
[13:35] Max Chatnoir: Last night my cat got out, and I couldn't get him to come back in because every time he saw another cat nearby he had to be sure it was gone.
[13:35] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): ok
[13:35] Gemma (gemma.cleanslate): ha
[13:36] bergfrau Apfelbaum: smile
[13:36] herman Bergson: The big difference is....animals just do it on instinct.....we KNOW what we are doing and could reflect on our actions
[13:36] Max Chatnoir: He wouldn't come in so long as they were in view.
[13:36] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): then aso i have a such hard time imagine any of this cause i have nothing of these things in me
[13:36] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): im not a conquerror
[13:36] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): im auniter if anything
[13:36] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): a uniter
[13:37] herman Bergson: Well... let's begin our weekend with positive thoughts....
[13:38] Gemma (gemma.cleanslate): ♥ Thank Youuuuuuuuuu!! ♥
[13:38] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): ㋡
[13:38] herman Bergson: Thank you all again for being in time for my class today :-)))
[13:38] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): aaaa
[13:38] bergfrau Apfelbaum: thank you Herman and class!
[13:38] Gemma (gemma.cleanslate) GIGGLES!!
[13:38] Gemma (gemma.cleanslate): ...LOL...
[13:38] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): ㋡
[13:38] herman Bergson: really cute :-))
[13:38] Gemma (gemma.cleanslate): early even
[13:38] bergfrau Apfelbaum: happy weekend:-)
[13:38] Particle Physicist Bejiita (bejiita.imako): yes!
[13:38] herman Bergson: Class dismissed
[13:38] Gemma (gemma.cleanslate): see you Tuesday hopefullly
[13:38] .: Beertje :. (beertje.beaumont): interesting again Herman
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